Kentucky REALTOR® News
Fourth-quarter home sales in Kentucky began with a strong October. Year-to-date home sales through October stands at 43,353 units and was an almost 5% increase over the 2018 total of 41,352. A strong October sales mark of 4,496 (up 8.4% over 2018) holds the state near record-breaking territory. Sales volume in the Commonwealth saw nearly a billion dollars in inventory change hands. The figure of $940 million was up an impressive 16.8% over October 2018 ($805 million).
Across the nation, total existing-home sales increased by 1.9% from September to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.46 million in October. Despite lingering regional variances, overall sales are up 4.6% from a year ago (5.22 million in October 2018). Lawrence Yun, chief economist for the National Association of Realtors®, said this sales increase is encouraging and he expects added growth in the coming months. “Historically-low interest rates, continuing job expansion, higher weekly earnings and low mortgage rates are undoubtedly contributing to these higher numbers,” said Yun. “We will likely continue to see sales climb as long as potential buyers are presented with an adequate supply of inventory.”
The median sales price in Kentucky was up 8.3% over October 2018 at $175,500. Year-to-date that total is up approximately 5% (at $172,553) from last year’s mark of $163,321.
October’s days-on-market (DOM) figure inched back up once again to 101 days. This is an increase of 6% over last year’s 95 days in October of 2018. Year-to-date, it is taking homes an average of 103 days to go under contract once listed.
Rip Phillips, President of Kentucky REALTORS®, reports that Kentucky’s market outperformed the south region of the U.S. in October. “Sales in the south are up about 7%”, he said. “The state of Kentucky, fueled by this robust and growing economy, showed an increase of almost eight-and-half percent. The affordability here is also allowing people to enter the market that previously could not do so. Lower mortgage rates are keeping the cost of owning a home stable even while the sale prices are steadily increasing.”
The inventory number for the state slipped slightly to 4.3 months. This is down just 2.5% over last October’s total of 4.4 months. Most economists believe a balanced housing market offers a 6-month inventory level.
The pace for home sales in Kentucky continues to pick up steam entering the fall season. September’s year-to-date home sales figure stands at 40,999 units. This is a 1.9% increase over the 2018 year-to-date figure of 40,214. A very strong September market experienced by counties in central and southern Kentucky has pushed this figure into year-end record territory. The Lexington-Bluegrass Association of REALTORS® experienced a 17% increase in year-over-year sales last month. As a whole, the Commonwealth saw 4,719 transactions take place in September. This is up 5.4% from last year’s figure of 4,463 marking the second-highest September sales number on record.
Unlike Kentucky, existing-home sales across the nation fell 2.2% from August to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.38 million in September. Despite the decline, overall sales are up 3.9% from a year ago (5.18 million in September 2018). Lawrence Yun, NAR’s chief economist, said that despite historically low mortgage rates, sales have not commensurately increased, in part due to a low level of new housing options. “We must continue to beat the drum for more inventory,” said Yun, who has called for additional home construction for over a year. “Home prices are rising too rapidly because of the housing shortage, and this lack of inventory is preventing home sales growth potential.”
The median home price in Kentucky inched up from the previous month but is 4.7% over September of 2018 at $143,653. This is the fifth consecutive month of year-over-year increases. Year-to-date that figure stands at $138,403, which is 3.7% higher than last year’s mark of $133,317.
September’s days-on-market (DOM) figure plummeted over 13% to 97 days. This is down from 110 days in September of 2018 and marked the first time that number has dropped below 108. The decrease in the amount of time it is taking for homes in the Bluegrass to go under contract is indicative of the shortage of homes on the market currently being experienced in Kentucky.
Rip Phillips, President of Kentucky REALTORS®, says that most markets in Kentucky bucked the national trend and saw an increase in sales this month. “Kentucky’s economy is really humming right now. Low unemployment coupled with confidence in the future is allowing the REALTOR® community to help Kentuckians with the great wealth-building activity of purchasing a home.”, he said.
The inventory number for the state has held below 4 months for seven consecutive months in 2019. The September figure of 3.89 months is up just 2 weeks from last month’s number but is almost 14% over the September 2018 figure of 4.42 months. Most economists believe a balanced housing market offers a 6-month inventory level.
Five years ago (August 2015) homes in the Commonwealth took an average of 139 days to go under contract. This past August, homes stayed on the market an average of just 96 days. That is the shortest timeframe for August on record. 5,329 homes were sold in August compared to 5,485 homes in August of last year, a 3% decrease. Year-to-date figures are trending higher, however. So far in 2019, 36,251 homes have sold which is an increase of 1.4% over 2018’s August YTD figure of 35,751. To date, 2019 is ahead of 2017’s record-year pace of 35,814 homes sold.
Nationally, pending home sales increased in August, a welcome rebound after a prior month of declines, according to the National Association of Realtors®. “It is very encouraging that buyers are responding to exceptionally low interest rates,” said Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist. “The notable sales slump in the West region over recent years appears to be over. Rising demand will reaccelerate home price appreciation in the absence of more supply.” The National Association of Realtors® is forecasting home sales to rise 0.6% in 2019 and another 3.4% in 2020.
The median home price in Kentucky was up 5.5% over August of 2018 at $142,233. This is the fourth consecutive month of year-over-year increases. Year-to-date that figure stands at $137,775 which is 3.5% higher than last year’s figure of 132,866.
August’s days-on-market (DOM) figure dropped at 96 days. This marks the first time that number has dropped below 100. This is the second-lowest DOM figure on record behind July of 2018 (95 days).
Rip Phillips, President of Kentucky REALTORS®, says that the market is rife with opportunities to help solve a housing affordability problem. “Legislators and communities alike can impact the housing shortage issue. From easing zoning and regulatory restrictions to making financing more affordable, REALTORS® are always a part if the discussion to help the consumer fulfill the dream or homeownership”, he said.
The inventory number for the state has held below 4 months for six consecutive months again this year. The August figure of 3.32 is up only slightly from last month’s number and is down over 7% over the August 2018 figure of 3.56 months. Most economists believe a balanced housing market offers a 6-month inventory level.
Rising prices do not yet seem to be hampering home sales as the figure rebounded from a slight dip in June. 5,471 homes were sold last month compared to 5,078 homes in July of 2018, a 7% increase. Year-to-date figures are also trending higher. So far in 2019, 30,863 homes have sold. This is up nearly 2% over 2018’s July YTD figure of 30,344 and just 87 homes (.25%) below that of July 2017’s number. 2017 was the highest year on record in Kentucky with 2018 ending a close second.
Nationwide, existing-home sales rose 2.5% from June to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.42 million in July. Overall sales are up 0.6% from a year ago (5.39 million in July 2018). “Falling mortgage rates are improving housing affordability and nudging buyers into the market,” said Lawrence Yun, NAR’s chief economist. However, he added that the supply of affordable housing is severely low.
The median home price in Kentucky last month was up 8.5% over July of 2018 at $146,325. This is the third straight month of year-over-year increases and the largest jump of 2019. “The shortage of lower-priced homes have markedly pushed up home prices. Clearly, the inventory of moderately-priced homes is inadequate, and more home building is needed,” said Yun. “Some new apartments could be converted into condominiums thereby helping with the supply, especially in light of new federal rules permitting a wider use of Federal Housing Administration (FHA) mortgages to buy condo properties.”
July’s days-on-market (DOM) figure stands at 97 days. The only other month when homes sold faster was last July when the statewide DOM figure reached the all-time low of 96. Contributing to this low number is the Northern Kentucky Association REALTORS® market. That area saw its lowest DOM month in July when homes went under contract, on average, in just 28 days.
Rip Phillips, President of Kentucky REALTORS®, says that the strong economy is causing the demand for housing to persist. “More Kentuckians than ever are wanting to buy homes right now”, he said. “Low inventory has been an ever-present theme this year and is becoming problematic for homebuyers looking at the $150k - $250k price range. The homes that meet that need are selling fast.”
The inventory number for the state sits at under 4 months for the fifth consecutive month. July’s figure of 3.21 is down 19% over the July 2018 figure of 3.82 months. Most economists believe a balanced housing market offers a 6-month inventory level.
OPINION by Robertson "Rip" Phillips, 2019 President of Kentucky REALTORS®
As an association representing approximately 11,300 real estate professionals in Kentucky, we have heard loudly from our members for years that they not only cannot afford to insure themselves but in many cases, their families. REALTORS® are sole proprietors and working small business owners.
According to the US Department of Labor, 2.07 million people are employed in Kentucky. Seven percent of the total employed workforce in the U.S. are independent contractors. For Kentucky that is approximately 145,000 – (roughly the populations of Bowling Green, Owensboro, and Hopkinsville combined) who do not have access to the often more affordable health care insurance option available to those employed by larger companies through a vehicle known as Association Health Plans (AHPs). Who are Kentucky’s independent contractors? In real estate professions, these individuals are auctioneers, appraisers, plumbers, home inspectors, and REALTORS®, to name a few. Studies indicate that a decreasing number of these individuals are covered by private health insurance. As a second-career REALTOR®, a huge obstacle for me when entering this industry was the lack of health care coverage provided by an employer. In my case, individual insurance was a tremendous financial burden and I was thankful to be able to attain coverage under my wife’s employer’s plan in order to make the commitment to a new career as an independent contractor. Unfortunately, not all aspiring REALTORS® or independent business owners are as fortunate.
At the Federal level, Congress passed legislation in 2018 to expand the current laws around AHPs that would give independent contractors (working owners and sole proprietors) the ability to participate in AHPs, just as their small business counterparts have enjoyed for years. Early this year, and with much appreciation, we acknowledged the wisdom of the Kentucky General Assembly to conform Kentucky’s insurance laws with the federal rules making Kentucky one of the first states to be able to create these plans for this category of businesspeople. Kentucky’s lawmakers were strong in their views on this as the senate was unanimously in favor and 81 of the 100 members of the House in Kentucky’s General Assembly voted to pass this legislation which was recently signed into law by Governor Bevin.
Unfortunately, a lawsuit filed by 12 state attorneys general is challenging the rule. In March a federal judge in Washington, D.C., struck down a U.S. Department of Labor rule which would have opened Association Health Plan options to Realtors® and other U.S. small business owners, and that has stopped the forward motion of these new rules in their tracks.
Those opposed to the new rule changes believe the new laws for AHPs would sabotage the Affordable Care Act (ACA) and that if the new rules are upheld at the federal level, the new health plans could discriminate against people with pre-existing conditions through expensive riders and increased premiums. This is simply inaccurate, as AHPs are specifically forbidden to deny coverage to individuals based on health factors. The cost of small group market plans typically has been 8 to 18 percent higher than they are for large employer plans depending on the insurance market. Seventy percent of the National Association of REALTORS® members surveyed also indicated that they did not qualify for a premium tax credit under the Affordable Care Act. The ACA requires the “employer” to have two or more employees. A working owner without employees is considered both an employer and an employee under the federal Employment Retirement Income Security Act (ERISA), but not under the ACA.
Being part of an AHP provides the individuals who choose to be their own bosses - and their families - with the opportunity to purchase health care at a more affordable cost since AHPs and the subsequent rules would allow state-based plans to provide health coverage to working owners with no employees. We applaud Kentucky’s General Assembly for attempting to move Kentucky forward in addressing the health care dilemma faced by so many Kentuckians and we are hopeful that the outcome of the federal lawsuit will be to uphold the rules Congress established to allow these plans to be created in all the states. In our opinion, this is not a partisan issue, but one of free-market competition that will always benefit the informed consumer. I am optimistic that hard-working Kentuckians will be offered freedom and flexibility through another option to satisfy their health insurance needs and give them the ability to choose a plan that best suits their needs.
Recently, the Kentucky Real Estate Commission unveiled proposed changes to certain administrative regulations relating to advertising and signage that have been unchanged for many years. Among the changes were “clarifications” and new definitions for a variety of terms.
On July 10, Kentucky REALTORS® Government Affairs Committee discussed the definitions and advertising requirements found in 201 KAR 11:011, 201 KAR 11:105, and 201 KAR 11:461. The committee made four recommendations for changes to the newly proposed regulations.
Kentucky REALTORS®’ President Rip Phillips delivered these comments at the public hearing held on July 23 in Frankfort. The comment period for these proposed regulations ended July 31. The recommendations provided by KYR are:
- Definition of “Single Agency” – KYR recommends that the Commission leave the definition of “Agency” as is and remove the definition of “Single Agency”. The KYR Government Affairs Committee feels the term “Single Agency” would be confusing and would, therefore, cause members to noncompliant with this part of the regulation.
- Definition of “Family Relationship” - KYR recommends to the Commission the removal of the phrase “regardless of distance of relationship” in the definition of “Family Relationship” due to this potentially becoming an issue in small communities and areas of Kentucky. The Kentucky REALTORS would like to propose the new definition of “Family Relationship” read as follows: “any known familial relationship between a licensee and party”.
- Regulation Related to Advertising - KYR recommends that the addition of the phrase “or written” to Section 3(4). The new Section 3(4) would now read as follows: Advertisements that include an audiovisual presentation shall include an audible or written announcement of the content required by Section 2(2) of this administrative regulation at the beginning of the advertisement. KYR’s Government Affairs Committee feels this is needed due to the fact that audiovisual presentations are often short in nature. If the person making the audiovisual presentation were required to say everything in Section2(2) instead of displaying it on the screen, the video would last much longer. For this reason, the KYR Government Affairs Committee would like to see the words “or written” added to Section 3(4).
- Regulation Related to Advertising - In Section 8 of the newly proposed advertising regulation, the language states that “the Commission shall begin enforcement of Section 3 sixty (60) days after the effective date of this administrative regulation.” KYR recommends a six (6) month effective date. Our proposal would read as follows: “Section 8. Effective Dates. The Commission shall begin enforcement of Section 3 six (6) months after the effective date of this administrative regulation”. Our members felt sixty (60) days was not an adequate amount of time to become compliant the newly proposed Advertising regulation.
Newly filed administrative regulations changes under 201 KAR 11.220, 11.210, 11.190, 11.170, and 11.002 that address mandatory E & O insurance, licensing & renewal for brokers and agents, procedures for filing complaints and requirements for education providers will be reviewed by the KYR Government Affairs Committee to determine if any comments and/or recommendations for changes to them are needed. If so, KYR will recommend those changes at a hearing now scheduled for August 21st at 10am in Frankfort. Anyone interested in attending and being involved is encouraged to attend. Of course, KYR will update its membership on any progress made during this important process.
KYR believes that the continued growth of the relationship between the Kentucky Real Estate Commission and Kentucky REALTORS® serves to strengthen an industry vital to the Kentucky economy. We appreciate the Commission members’ willingness to serve their profession and the citizens of Kentucky.
NOTE: Anyone interested in reviewing the proposed regulations or learning more about the hearings and public comment period may visit the KREC website at krec.ky.gov.
For only the second time in the last ten years, June home sales did not top those of the previous month. June home sales have historically been three percent higher than that of May’s (of the same year). June saw a five percent drop in that figure as closings fell to 5,097 sold, down from 5,347 in May 2019. June’s figure was down year-over-year from last June by 2.4%. Strong spring sales this year still have the year-to-date closings at a record pace, though slowing, at 25,402 homes sold. This is up almost one percent from this time last year (25,179).
Nationwide, existing-home sales as a whole are down 2.2% from a year ago (5.39 million in June 2018). “Home sales are running at a pace similar to 2015 levels – even with exceptionally low mortgage rates, a record number of jobs and a record high net worth in the country,” said Lawrence Yun, NAR’s chief economist. Yun says the nation is in the midst of a housing shortage and much more inventory is needed. “Imbalance persists for mid-to-lower priced homes with solid demand and insufficient supply, which is consequently pushing up home prices,” he said.
Yun said other factors could be contributing to the low number of sales. “Either a strong pent-up demand will show in the upcoming months, or there is a lack of confidence that is keeping buyers from this major expenditure. It’s too soon to know how much of a pullback is related to the reduction in the homeowner tax incentive.”
June’s days-on-market figure is down over five percent to 102 days. This is nearing the all-time low of 95 set last July. The year-to-date DOM figure is slightly higher at 111 days, down almost four percent from 2018’s mark of 115 days.
Rip Phillips, President of Kentucky REALTORS®, says that Kentucky’s sales slowdown is mirroring the nationwide sales dip. “We knew this correction was coming this year, we just didn’t know exactly when”, he said. “What remains to be seen is when home prices will level-off this summer. REALTORS® know well that higher prices mean that some consumers who want to buy a home will just have to wait longer.”
The median home price surpassed $140k for the first time just 2 years ago (July 2017). As expected, June 2019 sets the new all-time high mark at $146,745. This is up 1.7% over June of last year.
If no more homes were placed on the market in Kentucky, it would take 3.1 months to sell everything in inventory at present. That figure is at the lowest point since it began being tracked by Kentucky REALTORS® in 2013. Economists say that a healthy housing market has about a 6-month inventory level. In the Commonwealth, supply just can’t keep up with the increasing demand. The unfortunate side-effect of this is rising prices.
President Trump signed an executive order this week establishing a White House Council on Eliminating Barriers to Affordable Housing Development. The council will consist of members from across 8 Federal agencies and will be chaired by Secretary of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) Ben Carson. It is reported that this new council will engage with State, local, and tribal leaders to identify and remove obstacles that impede the development of new affordable housing. It will also look at the effect Federal, State, and local regulations are having on the costs of developing affordable housing and the economy.
The National Association of Realtors (NAR) welcomed the news of the announcement and applauded the actions of the Administration. In a release from NAR, 2019 President John Smaby said, “Today, despite historic economic growth and recovery, misguided regulations and gaps in new home constructions have stopped far too many Americans from purchasing a home. The National Association of Realtors® thanks President Trump for taking much-needed steps to address housing affordability in this country, and we look forward to continuing to work closely with the White House to ensure the American Dream remains attainable for all those who seek to become homeowners.”
In Kentucky, May closings surged 5.6% to 5,346 homes, up from 5,064 in 2018, marking the second-highest May on record. Year-to-date closings are also just off the pace of the 2017 record high year. So far in 2019, 20,295 homes have sold, up from 20,046 at this time last year.
Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said lower-than-usual mortgage rates have led to a nationwide increase in pending home sales for May. “Rates of 4% and, in some cases even lower, create extremely attractive conditions for consumers. Buyers, for good reason, are anxious to purchase and lock in at these rates.” Yun said consumer confidence about home buying has risen, and he expects even more activity in the coming months. “The Federal Reserve may cut interest rates one more time this year, but there is no guarantee mortgage rates will fall from these already historically low points,” he said. “Job creation and a rise in inventory will nonetheless drive more buyers to enter the market.”
May’s days-on-market figure rose ten percent to 110 days, up from 100 days in May of last year. The year-to-date number is slightly higher at 113 days, which is a three percent drop over this time last year.
Rip Phillips, 2019 President of Kentucky REALTORS®, says that the rising demand is actually having an effect on the real estate industry. “Increasing numbers of individuals are seeking to get licensed in Kentucky”, he said. “Economists look at job creation as the mark of a strong economy. Conversely, when the economy strengthens the housing market, it leads to job creation in those related positions. That’s good news for the industry responsible for 15% of Kentucky’s gross state product.”
The ever-increasing demand for homes is still driving prices upward. The median home price rose almost five percent to $140,813, up from $133,923 in May of 2018. This is second only to June of last year when the median closing price reached $144,581).
Kentucky REALTORS® (KYR) President Rip Phillips announces that KYR has joined the National Association of Realtors® amicus brief in defense of the Department of Labor’s (DOL) Association Health Plan rule. Amicus briefs are legal documents filed in appellate court cases by non-litigants that have a strong interest in the subject matter in question. Earlier this year, a federal court ruled that provisions of the DOL’s rule were unlawful, a ruling adversely impacting Realtors® seeking more cost-effective and comprehensive health insurance solutions through AHP options.
“Passage of the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act resulted in significant regulatory changes to the individual insurance market, some of which have benefited Realtors®,” the brief reads. “However, ACA changes have also resulted in significant increases in health care costs, leaving many individuals to forgo coverage, which jeopardizes the health, safety and financial stability of their families and others.”
Kentucky REALTORS®, along with a number of other state and local associations, has agreed to join NAR in protecting AHPs, which has been the subject of litigation since shortly after the rule was finalized in June of last year. Others participating in the amicus brief include five state and local associations that are currently offering AHPs to members, including the Baldwin County Association of Realtors® in Alabama, the Greater Las Vegas Association of Realtors®, the Kansas City Regional Association of Realtors®, the Nevada Realtors®, and the Tennessee Realtors®.
To date, over 3,000 Realtors® and their families have found cost-effective health insurance solutions through these five association health plans. Many more Realtor® associations are also exploring AHP options but have been delayed due to the uncertainty surrounding this litigation. “The independent contractors of Kentucky deserve the option of Association Health Plans,” said Kentucky REALTORS® President, Rip Phillips. “The lack of insurance coverage options should not be a barrier to entering the real estate industry. While the recent court action has postponed our efforts to create another health insurance option for our members, we are grateful to the Kentucky legislators who helped to pass HB396 during the 2019 General Session to conform state insurance laws to the federal ones which we hope will allow us to move ahead”, he said.
“Supporting the Department of Labor’s rulemaking will continue to help safeguard our members’ ability to join an association health plan. Ensuring the freedom to choose quality coverage is key to cultivating a deep participant pool and strong marketplace, and Kentucky REALTORS® will continue to support the DOL’s efforts to expand these options in Kentucky and across the nation.”
NAR’s amicus brief discusses DOL’s lawful authority to expand access to AHPs by interpreting the working owner provisions to promote flexibility while not conflicting with existing statutes. NAR also describes the comprehensiveness of AHP coverage and the many successful plans already in place that is resulting in significant savings and benefits to many working owners. If the courts final ruling is adverse and pending any appeals, independent contractors may lose the ability to access insurance coverage through an AHP, sacrificing valuable savings on premiums, and broader network access with more comprehensive benefits.
“While NAR continues to explore and tackle barriers to a national AHP insurance option, we are learning from the many successes being implemented by state and local Realtor® associations,” NAR President John Smaby, a second-generation Realtor® from Edina, Minnesota, said. “These initial programs are helping us ensure our members and their families can secure these effective, affordable health insurance options moving forward. We must continue to protect the AHP options that so many Realtors® have come to rely on for coverage and so many more deserve access to.”
NAR is a founding member of the Coalition to Promote and Protect Association Health Plans, which also submitted an amicus brief in this case. NAR recently created an updated map showing the state-by-state regulatory environment as it applies to working owners, which also links to a detailed chart outlining specific actions by individual states.
The number of homes available for sale continues to slide in Kentucky. That figure sits at a near-record low of 3.5 months, which is the time it would take to sell off all listed homes if no others were added to the market. This fact hasn’t seemed to slow down sales just yet, however. April 2019 saw 4,581 homes sold which is up half a percent over April 2018’s figure of 4,552. Year-to-date, homes sold stands at 14,903 across Kentucky, a slight dip of half a percent.
Nationwide, pending home sales declined in April, a modest change from the growth seen a month before, according to the National Association of Realtors®. Only one of the four major regions – the Midwest – experienced growth, while the remaining three regions reported a drop in their respective contract activity. The Pending Home Sales Index, a forward-looking indicator based on contract signings, fell 1.5% to 104.3 in April, down from 105.9 in March. Year-over-year contract signings declined 2.0%, making this the 16th straight month of annual decreases.
Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said the sales dip has yet to account for some of the more favorable trends toward homeownership, such as lower mortgage rates. "Though the latest monthly figure shows a mild decline in contract signings, mortgage applications, and consumer confidence have been steadily rising,” he said. “It’s inevitable for sales to turn higher in a few months."
April’s days-on-market figure fell nearly ten percent to 104 days, down from 115 days in April of last year. The year-to-date number is slightly higher at 113 days, which is a six percent drop over this time last year.
Rip Phillips, President of Kentucky REALTORS®, said that dwindling inventory continues to be the trend. “Kentucky needs to experience an increase in new construction.”, he said. “What can fuel this? We need the Commonwealth to continue putting in pro-business policies that help increase wages. We also need more affordable housing with programs such as first-time homebuyer tax credits being used in other states to meet the demand”.
While the median home price rose only a fraction in April to $136,053, it still bests last April ($136,019) to reach the all-time high for this month. This marks the fourth straight month of year-over-year gains in home prices for the Commonwealth.